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Friday, November 04, 2005

SCG members want to weigh in with early predictions on who the GOP nominee will be in 2008 and the location of the convention? How about two choices for nominee and one for convention?

JPC George Allen, Mark Sandford Atlanta

TJ Rudy Giuliani, Condi Rice Philadelphia


Sip Condi Rice, George Allen Chicago


TIBS Gov. Allen, Gov. Sanford, New Orleans

Great blog. I wish there were more like it!
Scooter Libby and Karl Rove, and Colin Powell and Elizabeth Dole. If that does not work, they might want to try Tom Delay and Harriet Miers. In a worst case scenario, we need to go for the male/male ticket, which will suck against Clinton. If we do decide to go that road, I reccomend Jason and TJ, if they win they can nominate LSC for the supreme court.
No but seriously, Allen and Sanford might work.
I like the idea of Mark Sanford on the ticket - but I don't think it's time to elect someone without foreign policy experience.

1st Choice:
(If Bush becomes more popular)
Condi Rice
2nd Choice:
(and I never thought I'd say this - but if Bush's approval ratings continue to drop)
Rudy Giuliani

If Michael Steele and Bob Ehrilch win in '06 - I say Baltimore and Steele is the keynote speaker.
I agree with LSC, for the most part. I think Giuliani is the more likely nominee than Rice, however.

There are several factors working in Rudy's favor, I think:
1. I believe terror and the war will be the dominant issue in 2008.
2. I think that conservative concerns about Giuliani will be further diminished if either Stevens or Ginsburg step down in the next year and are replaced by yet another conservative.
3. I believe the Democratic ticket will be Clinton-Richardson. Beating Clinton will be the most important priority. Giuliani puts California and the entire Northeast in play. That's necessary because Richardson will be mobilizing hispanics like never before in the southwest.
4. Giuliani has the name ID and will have the money to go the distance. As a bonus, his presence in the race will make it very difficult for McCain to get traction as the outsider candidate.
5. I think the Republican primary electorate is intelligent enough to recognize that being Mayor of New York pulls you in certain directions... I think they will give Giuliani far more leeway than McCain, who opposed the President and the party out of choice, rather than necessity.
6. Giuliani's worst moment of apostasy was his endorsement of Cuomo rather than Pataki back in 1994. In hindsight, given Pataki's weak record, it isn't as easy to say he was wrong!
7. The Dems will be having their convention in New Orleans... focusing on competence. I think Giuliani stands up pretty well against the Clinton administration on that ground.

As Meiers demonstrates -- the conservative movement is more concerned with changing the culture of the judiciary than with merely overturning Roe. Roe is simply the worst symptom of the underlying problem of an out of control judiciary. Giuliani will need to make it clear that he is a strict constructionist and will appoint judges in the mold of Alito and Roberts...

I do not believe either party will have two white males on the ticket. My guess is Giuliani-Rice. If not Rice, then my outsider VP candidate is JC Watts or Martinez from Florida. If the convention is wrapped up far in advance, and it is not Rice, the Republican candidate may announce Rice early... forcing the Dems to think about Obama for VP rather than Richardson. I think Richardson is the stronger pick - more experience.
I'm going on a limb with Philadelphia. I think that is only likely if Giuliani is the candidate. We will look to have it somewhere in a swing state -- I think Philadelphia will clearly be on the table. If Santorum wins, that makes it more likely. If he loses, less so. I think we should revisit these guesses again after 2006.
Repeat after me fellas..."There is zero chance that the GOP will nominate someone who is not pro-life." Condi could get the 2nd slot this time, but not the first. And Rudy too, though I doubt he would take it. 2008 is too far removed from 9-11 for Rudy to overcome the fact that he is pro-abortion. All of this said, in the event that we are attacked between now and February of 2008 all bets are off.
Condi v. Hillary - I believe Condi would take it. And I also believe conservatives would heavily support Condi...the thought of Hillary in office would be waaaaaayyyyyy too much to bear for conservatives to stay home. And I think she would be electable.

Allen v. Hillary - the press would only support Hillary.
I used to go with the Pro-Life mantra - but...Iowa and New Hampshire are not Pro-Life stalwarts like South Carolina.

And most importantly - the words "President Hillary Clinton" have a wonderful power to concentrate the Republican mind.
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