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Wednesday, October 04, 2006

Anything can happen as of this writing..but....a general rule is to get ALL the bad news out immediately. On this Foley fiasco, things keep slowly trickling out. To that end:

1. Hastert - is he toast?

2. Reynolds - some of us know him personally, or knew him years ago. Is his leadership position gone? Predictions on his re-election?

3. The House - is it lost?

4. The Senate - will we keep it?

1. Hastert- Should resign, or be removed if true.
2. Renyolds- if true, should resign as he has failed his party.
3. House-Lost
4. Senate- lost, but not just due to this, the whole Iraq thing has been grossly mishandled, and the liberals have beat us at spin.
1. Hastert - I don't think he should resign now. Sufficient to say that he isn't running again.

2. Reynolds - I know and like Tom a great deal. His staff let him down. If he survives the fallout in the district and GOP keeps the House, he'll be back in leadership. Fordham will write a book and go into lobbying. Foley will write a book too, but he'll stay in the "polling" business.

3. House - first time I ever had doubts this election season. Without this, no question they hold. Still too early to tell. If nothing pushes this off the front pages, then say hello to Speaker Pelosi. Hey, at least she's Italian (by marriage?).

4. Senate - holds. This hasn't touched the senate, though it stalls momentum for Santorum and other key races. It helps Allen though, because whose thinking about Macaca now!? The sad thing is, the Senate is way more squishy than the House -- perhaps 2008 will give some people backbone. Too bad they didn't get it sooner.

In the end, Republicans are vulnerable because they were not conservative enough (on spending, on ithe war and interrogations, on immigration). They've run a terrible New York style campaign -- hand out checks to buy people's votes rather than stand for something. They've cowered when the media and the left suggested that we are horrible people for belly slapping terrorists to get information on their next big plot to kill thousands. They've done little to settle the situation at the border.

I love tax cuts as much as the next guy, but that's not enough to get me excited about voting for this bunch.
1.) Hastert - Lost control and the support of the conference a while back. Too hands off for too long has created many problems. He and the Conference depended on the Hammer to keep order and tough decisions. Will not survive in leadership. Unfortunately, Blunt is no good and Boehner is barely better.

2.) Reynolds - He should no more than anyone about going outside "the family" - my first reaction even when he named Fordham CoS is that he shouldn't go outside the family and he had a deep enough bench of trusted staff and former staff he could turn to if he needed to fill senior staff positions. I agree w/ TJ - Staff let him down and agree that if the GOP maintains control, he's in a good position for leadership. But they aren't going to...

3.) House - GOP looses by a slim margin. Pelosi, Chairmen Rangel and Waxman will alienate the public. Long hearings, investigations, and mudslinging will bring this town to a new low. The upside - nothing will pass but a pork laden Farm Bill; the liberal agenda will so offend conservatives and mainstream America that a new Republican Congress (similar to the '94 Class) will take over with a GOP President in '08.

4.) The Senate - GOP holds, but what difference does it make. Leadership will be a mess. And we could lose one or two conservative leaning members, making the whole body even more squishy.
There should be a minimum of seven comments on this post, to include mine. Have the SCG's had a falling out? If so, my offer to buy the site stands.
Maybe you should remove the word verification, so at least the spammers can add to this topic.
Theses are predictions right?

Hastert stays through the election and steps down following.

Reynolds does not get re-elected, it'll be close, but he loses.

The GOP holds the house by a razor thin margin.

The GOP holds the Senate as well. BUT - if they lose the Senate by one seat, I expect a seriously hard push to turn Lieberman, and he just might do it - the middle east strategy means that much to him. He would only do it if his was the deciding seat.

The republicans don't deserve to hold, but I now expect they will.
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