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Monday, November 06, 2006
 
Calling it in

Had a great time in San Francisco, even though it was work. They really don't like Conservatives there. Much talk about getting rid of Pombo.

Went on the WNY to help Tom Reynolds for a few days. Very intense.

My picks below. It will be called by 9pm.
+'s: GOP ground game has been excellent. There are no surprises and R's knew it would be tough. Margins tightening because of little to no message from D's.
-'s: Not confident with so many North East and Midwest seats in play; D's have tapped into the "angry white male" angst that the GOP has used for so long to its advantage.


Key Senate Races:

TJ / JPC / Sip

MD: Steele; Steele; Steele
MO: Talent; McCaskill; Talent
MT: Burns; Burns; Burns
OH: Brown; Brown; Brown
PA: Casey; Casey; Casey
NJ: Menendez; Menendez; Menendez
RI: Whitehouse; Whitehouse; Whitehouse
TN: Corker; Corker; Corker
VA: Webb; Allen; Allen

Dem pickup in House
TJ: +13; JPC: +14; Sip: +16

TJ's Comments:

1. I had to go against Santorum. There were two polls that have him down 8, but other polls have him down 12. I think his GOTV effort will be spectacular, but I don't think he can make up those kind of margins. If he was down to 5, I'd go with Santorum because I think the conservatives are energized in PA like never before. I think the fact there is a gubernatorial race this year hurts him, as the entire Dem. establishment is out there for Rendell.

2. I don't know if you missed it, but apparently Clinton was on the stump in Rochester (at the Airport). Two of the three local democratic hopefuls were there -- but no Jack Davis. Interesting. Anyone know if Davis was at the Buffalo rally?

3. I think upstate New York may make the difference one way or another on Tuesday (along with all the other races...). If Walsh, Reynolds, Kuhl go down, the Republican majority is toast. If they hold, or if you see someone like Ray Meier from the Utica area surge forward to win, then I think it will be a pretty good night.

4. On Jim Walsh -- if he wins, it will be despite the horrible efforts he's put in on the Western (Rochester) side of the district. He was strong in the beginning, with large and well done mail pieces, but he's been beat in the closing days by his opponent, who is all over the Television and has been peppering the mailboxes with relatively decent mail pieces. Worse still, I came home the other day to find a photocopied piece of paper that was supposed to be the Walsh keycard of some sort. It wasn't even photocopied correctly. That's not the fault of the local GOP, which has been working hard to deliver for Walsh -- but the fault of his team. If you are a member of the appropriations committee and you can't raise enough money to do decent mail/key cards, you should just give up. I wasn't worried about this race until about 2 weeks ago.

5. If Republicans win, expect (a) litigation and (b) not a small amount of civil unrest, and (c) John Kerry's head being carried around on a pike.

6. My sense right now is that the election for the House could go either way. I see the Democrats picking up anywhere from 12-19 seats. I don't see a wave election (35+). The average for these second term mid-terms is 25. I am sticking with my 13 and buying food and water for the coming riots. And popcorn for the Kerry implosion. I hope I need it.


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