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Sunday, November 05, 2006
 
Took time out from blogging this afternoon to make GOTV calls to voters in key states.
I ordinarily get out for the local candidates, but had some things going on with family.

The GOP.com site is here.

Might as well use this post to advertise for a predictions column. I don't have all of mine yet, but :

Dem pickup in House
TJ: +13

Key Senate Races: Dem pickups in italics, Republican pickups in bold

MD: Steele
MO: Talent*
MT: Burns
OH: Brown
PA:
NJ: Menendez
RI: Whitehouse
TN: Corker
VA: Webb*

TJ's comments:

*I'm not entirely confident on VA or MO. Both could go either way. (UPDATE: I'm so uncertain that I just switched both races.). We'll see how many months they leave open the voting booths in St. Louis first.

I am holding off until the final polls in PA. Why, you might ask, since that race has been declared over for the past 10 months? My reason is that Santorum has been running a classic mobilization strategy election. More than any other Senator, he's been running to his base -- hard. That's an unusual strategy in a Senate election since the eletorates are far more diverse. But in an off-year election with a really bad candidate on the other side (despite Casey Junior's name, he's been a disaster) it is entirely possible that the base is very motivated on Tuesday. Also, Giuliani came through this weekend for Santorum, and that should have a very positive effect on independents and other swing voters. Santorum may be my "surprise race" of the year, but I can't be sure. Steele's victory will no longer qualify as a surprise by the way. At this point, I'd be surprised if he lost.

Surprise pickup on the Dem side: Randy Kuhl will lose to Eric Massa in an extremely conservative district in Upstate New York. Kuhl's run a god-awful campaign, probably because he relied on the tired and out-of-touch operatives that propped up RINO Amo Houghton for all those years.

In other upstate NY races, for what it is worth, Tom Reynolds hangs on, Jim Walsh wins by surprisingly large margin, and Ray Meier loses close one in battle for another RINO, Sherry Boehlert's old seat. Hevesi loses the race for comptroller for all of you who care.


Comments:
House: -17
Senate:
MD Steele
MO McCaskil
MT Burns
OH Brown
PA Casey
RI Chafee
TN Corker
VA Allen (although, I'm not too confident in this one)

New York:
The big surprise will be how close John Hall gets to beating Sue Kelly...he might even pull this off. The Hasidic community in her district just endorsed Hall which equals 5,000 votes (a 10,000 vote swing) - that may be enough to swing this election.

Reynolds, Kuhl and Walsh win close.
Arcuri wins Boehlert's seat.
Sweeny's race isn't decided on election day but he pulls it out on absentee ballots.
King wins by under 10%

In the State Senate GOP loses 1 seat total.
In the Assembly GOP loses 2 seats including the South Shore SI seat.
 
(my bad...sp - McCaskill)
 
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