Six Conservative Guys
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Monday, January 07, 2008
Is it 2008 already?
Well then Happy New Year…
Tomorrow is round two (really three if you count Wyoming), and below you will find the most recent preferences stated by the SCG panel:
TJ: 1. Thompson, 2. Giuliani, 3. McCain 4. Romney, 5. Huckabee
JPC: 1. Thompson, 2. McCain, 3. Romney, 4. Huckabee, 5. Giuliani
Sip: 1. Romney, 2. Huckabee, 3. Thompson, 4. Guiliani, 5. McCain
TIBS: 1. Thompson, 2. McCain, 3. Romney, 4. Huckabee, 5. Giuliani
Chris: 1. Thompson, 2. McCain, 3. Giuliani, 4. Huckabee, 5. Romney
Scott: 1. Thompson, 2. Guiliani, 3. Huckabee, 4. Romney, 5. McCain
Jason: 1. Romney, 2. Guiliani, 3. Huckabee, 4. Thompson, 5. McCain
Again, these were not predictions, just preferences as stated just prior to the Iowa Caucuses. Consensus, based on weighting them as scored above would be: Thompson (30/35), Romney (21), Giuliani (19), McCain (18), Huckabee (17).
I think New Hampshire is critical for both Romney and McCain with the victor being in the driver’s seat from this point on, though I expect none of the top five to drop out after this contest. Huckabee’s rise has been impressive, and can’t be ignored, but I think he, like Thompson, is more likely to be on the lower half of the GOP ticket than the top slot. One of those two will be needed to balance a ticket if either Romney or Guiliani gains the nomination. Guiliani’s strategy of focusing exclusively on the big states appears to be costing him however, as you hardly hear his name anymore with the focus being on Mitt, Huck and McCain. Rudy could still be a viable VP candidate for Huckabee or Thompson.
On the other side of the aisle, Hillary’s slide is simply amazing – I can’t recall such a rapid decline. She finished third in Iowa - third. If she loses tomorrow, she could be finished – and this has me very, very frightened. I like the chances of any of the GOP top five in a head-to-head battle with Hillary, but I think Obama has a fighting chance to win each of those same five match-ups. Republicans (like me) who could live with any of the five GOP contenders, might even be wise to walk over to the Dem’s booth and vote for Hillary – as that vote may do more to ensure a Republican victory in November.
NOTE: I fixed an error. I'm pretty sure I made Rudy my second choice and McCain my third. That's still where I stand, - TJ.
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