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Wednesday, February 13, 2008
 
Is Obama Unbeatable?

I agree that Hillary is the easier candidate to beat. She's a terrible candidate with high negatives and little ability to connect to voters. Her political instincts have always been terrible. It was Hillary, not Bill, who pushed hard in 1993 on a host of liberal issues that nearly sank his presidency. It was her isolation that led to the Clinton rebirth and triangulation. That isolation is simply not possible in this campaign where Hillary, not Bill is the candidate.

While I agree that Obama is a difficult candidate to beat for a number of reasons: he has very little record and is an excellent speaker, for instance. Also, the fact that he is an African American complicates any effort to go negative (ask Hillary and see below).

Why is Obama not unbeatable? Well, for one thing, Hillary is a much weaker candidate than anyone in the media has been willing to admit. In addition, Hillary is limited in ways that Republicans are not. Hillary cannot focus in on Obama's positions on issues and his far-left statements in the Democratic primary because they only emphasize that he is more liberal than she is, a fact that doesn't work well for her in the Democratic primary.

Independents and Republicans, on the other hand, may not be as forgiving. That isn't to say Obama won't still win -- but McCain will enjoy a much more target rich environment than Hillary.

Again, Obama is going to be a tough candidate. His narrative (more on that later) is powerful and McCain has huge problems on the right. Still, these are (still) serious times for those who are concerned about those things.


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