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Wednesday, April 02, 2008

So who’s it gonna be? By all accounts, this is one major bogie – I can’t recall the last time so much was being sought from a prospective VP candidate. You need youth to offset Mac’s age. You need conservative bonnafides to assuage the base (or do you?). You could argue you need a strong religious/evangelical candidate to help bring out the evangelicals - who are more or less threatening to stay home. You need a strong fiscal candidate rather than a strong foreign policy candidate – but again given the “age” issues the candidate has to remain pretty well rounded. And who knows what would be best from a geographical standpoint – Mac’s from Arizona – do you need a Southern Veep? An East-coast Veep? Do you need a woman or a minority to offset the “first” factor on the opposing ticket?

There is not likely going to be a candidate that hits all of those elements, but this decision will be watched, debated, and second guessed long after the announcement.

Here’s the breakdown on Intrade as of April 1st:

The “field” (meaning anyone not listed below) is the heavy favorite, currently trading at 46.3.

The top seven individuals are:

Mitt Romney at 17.0 (but a current bid of 19.0)
Tim Pawlenty at 17.0 (but a current bid of 16.2)
Condolezza Rice at 9.6
Rudy Guiliani at 5.0
Kay Bailey Hutchinson at 3.3
Mike Huckabee at 2.1
Lindsay Graham at 1.2

All others are trading at less than 1 and include: Fred Thompson, Jeb Bush, Michael Steele, Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul and Duncan Hunter.

Thoughts? Conjecture? Preferences?


Not a great lineup at all.

Would like Mark Sanford, but I'm hoping that by sitting this one out that he is left untainted.
Maybe Ron Paul if McCain were known to have a terminal illness.
Terminal illness? He would need to have a mental illness to select Ron Paul...
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